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PotD 10-30-23 -- Variant and ROLLOUT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 9 November 2023, at 3:24 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-30-23 - Rollout (Stick)

The "middling" variant of 21/12 is much more competitive when White does not own her 9pt, from where she can play good 5s only when her 4pt is unblocked.

This aspect can be hidden when one tries to create variants. Pierrez' variants show a wonderful contrast between 20/11 and 23/14; however, by virtue of White owning her 7pt, Black's "middling" variant 21/12 becomes illegal.

On the other extreme, we can adjust White's 9pt to her 11pt, and 21/12 becomes best. However, it is also the only legal move.

Below is a variant where all three running plays are legal, and 21/12 is best.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 99
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 166
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBBB------b-c-b-cBBcBb-:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
White owns 12pt instead of 9pt

1.Rollout121/12eq: +0.005
Player:
Opponent:		47.52% (G:9.19% B:0.32%)
52.48% (G:21.46% B:0.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.004...+0.015) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout120/11eq: -0.046 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		45.48% (G:8.55% B:0.30%)
54.52% (G:21.99% B:0.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.057...-0.036) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout123/14eq: -0.105 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		43.40% (G:7.83% B:0.29%)
56.60% (G:21.17% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.116...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51941560
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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