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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 10 November 2023, at 10:36 p.m.

In Response To: Anyone have a reference position for this one? (Timothy Chow)

If you're able to see that this is a borderline take/pass for money, then the ATS decision follows fairly easily because gammons are low, but for me at least, that's a big if.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 77
7 point match
pip: 84
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-CBD-B---Ab-------Abbdd-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.67% (G:7.66% B:0.09%) 75.50% (G:5.79% B:0.06%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.33% (G:0.54% B:0.00%) 24.50% (G:0.73% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.629 +1.671
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.767 (-0.116)±0.005 (+0.762..+0.772)
Double/Take:+0.884±0.010 (+0.874..+0.893)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.116)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Unlimited game rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 77
Unlimited Game
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-CBD-B---Ab-------Abbdd-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.78% (G:7.61% B:0.09%) 75.40% (G:7.79% B:0.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.22% (G:0.52% B:0.00%) 24.60% (G:0.79% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.567 +1.158
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.760 (-0.214)±0.005 (+0.756..+0.765)
Double/Take:+0.974±0.007 (+0.967..+0.982)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.026)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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