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Las Vegas SJ Finals #5 (Cube) - Variant ROLLOUT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 13 November 2023, at 8:56 a.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Super Jackpot Finals #5 (Cube) - Rollout + for Money (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 183
15 point match
pip: 167
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--aBC-DA--cB--b--d-b--C-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.95% (G:28.88% B:3.49%) 62.62% (G:28.95% B:3.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.05% (G:10.64% B:0.99%) 37.38% (G:10.58% B:0.86%)
Cubeless Equities +0.484 +0.945
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.599±0.027 (+0.572..+0.626)
Double/Take:+0.496 (-0.103)±0.040 (+0.456..+0.536)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.401)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.0%
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42247483
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 39 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Perhaps the Blue player would be forgiven for confusion with the above position, where he is 3 pips further ahead in the race and it would be a whopper to double? ;)

Nack

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