'Offense before defense' is usually the way to go, especially in the early game. Even outside of the early game offense should be the default unless the opp's position is a real nut buster. (is that in bkgm's glossary?)
As Mr. Pottle pointed out, our six point is quite stacked so if we were to pull one of those checkers back to the midpoint as in the variant below it would be a much tighter decision. This, of course, not only puts us down even further in the race while not having the overstacked six point but also removes a checker from the zone which would be important to our potential follow up.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a--ECB-a-dC---c-d--bAA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 7/3* 6/3 | eq: +0.136 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.06% (G:17.85% B:0.53%)
47.94% (G:11.25% B:0.56%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 23/20 | eq: +0.065 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.31% (G:9.45% B:0.20%)
49.69% (G:5.60% B:0.17%) | |
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a--DCB-a-dD---c-d--bAA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3* 6/3 | eq: +0.012 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.68% (G:15.40% B:0.54%)
50.32% (G:12.70% B:0.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.003...+0.021) - [49.8%]
Duration: 10 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/10* 7/3* | eq: +0.012 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.68% (G:16.54% B:0.63%)
49.32% (G:16.25% B:1.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.000...+0.023) - [48.6%]
Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/20 13/10* | eq: +0.001 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.65% (G:12.62% B:0.56%)
49.35% (G:14.50% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.009...+0.010) - [1.6%]
Duration: 12 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/20 23/20 | eq: -0.036 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.21% (G:9.10% B:0.23%)
51.79% (G:6.56% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.051...-0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94867874
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94867874
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|