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Too good?!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2023, at 8:58 p.m.

In Response To: Las Vegas Super Jackpot Finals #7 (Cube) - Rollout (Stick)

Assessing this position as possibly TG doesn't seem that strange to me. As you say, it's an atypical position, and the variant below is TG according to XG. Yes, of course the variant is much better for Carl, but it's hard to judge these things OTB.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 168
15 point match
pip: 134
score: 10

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CaBBB--a-----bbc-dbC-C--:0:0:-1:00:2:10:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.28% (G:29.20% B:1.26%) 79.69% (G:30.85% B:2.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.72% (G:2.53% B:0.07%) 20.31% (G:2.65% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.861 +1.539
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.005±0.008 (+0.997..+1.013)
Double/Take:+1.185 (+0.180)±0.043 (+1.142..+1.228)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.005)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:89.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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