First, a link to Fraçois Tardieu's article on bearing off in such position at dmp. Always worth a read esp. for the formula inclined bg players.
Next, I didn't know which position of the two to post originally and I went with the one that didn't come up OtB. If you read John's response he got the right answer to the original problem but does the work he used to back up the answer get the right answer for the variant? Would something have changed in his equation from one problem to the next?
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 95 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 23
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CDa--B-----a-----bcbbbb--:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 1/Off | eq: +0.855 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.42% (G:31.85% B:0.14%)
19.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.851...+0.859) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5.3 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/Off | eq: +0.802 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.11% (G:27.84% B:0.02%)
19.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.798...+0.806) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6849901
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 23
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CDa--B-----a---bbbcbb----:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/Off | eq: +1.147 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.38% (G:61.68% B:0.08%)
19.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.143...+1.151) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 1/Off | eq: +1.121 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.33% (G:58.50% B:0.34%)
19.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.116...+1.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22704350
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|