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PotD 11-19-23 - Hit/No Hit? - Variants, ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 20 December 2023, at 10:59 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 11-19-23 - Hit/No Hit? - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 125
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--bBB-CC-abB---b-cbc--A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout113/11* 9/8eq: +0.031
Player:
Opponent:
51.60% (G:14.84% B:0.53%)
48.40% (G:14.65% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.021...+0.041) - [98.8%]
Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 13/11* eq: +0.014 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
51.41% (G:14.65% B:0.54%)
48.59% (G:15.46% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.004...+0.024) - [1.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout213/11* 8/7eq: -0.026 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
50.69% (G:13.69% B:0.44%)
49.31% (G:16.45% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.047...-0.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
4.Rollout29/7 8/7eq: -0.067 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
48.55% (G:9.24% B:0.30%)
51.45% (G:11.79% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.084...-0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
5.Rollout213/11* 11/10eq: -0.164 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
47.04% (G:13.57% B:0.52%)
52.96% (G:18.06% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.187...-0.140) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9843355
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9843355
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Stick's rollout of the original position is above.

My rollouts of two variants appear below, where Blue's 1pt checkers are moved to the 3pt or the 6pt.

Three related positions, three best plays.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBB-CC-abB---b-cbc--A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/23 13/11* eq: +0.123
Player:
Opponent:
54.75% (G:12.45% B:0.50%)
45.25% (G:13.25% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.109...+0.138) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout113/11* 9/8eq: +0.087 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
53.39% (G:12.50% B:0.50%)
46.61% (G:12.98% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.074...+0.100) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: -0.008 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
50.83% (G:8.45% B:0.36%)
49.17% (G:11.31% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.021...+0.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 53 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52998702
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBD-CC-abB---b-cbc--A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: +0.072
Player:
Opponent:
52.56% (G:8.29% B:0.37%)
47.44% (G:12.00% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.058...+0.086) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout113/11* 6/5eq: +0.008 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
51.68% (G:12.14% B:0.52%)
48.32% (G:15.39% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.006...+0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout124/23 13/11* eq: -0.050 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
50.54% (G:12.04% B:0.60%)
49.46% (G:17.61% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.066...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout113/11* 9/8eq: -0.053 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
49.99% (G:12.19% B:0.62%)
50.01% (G:16.34% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.068...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40548372
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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