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PotD 11-23-23 - Three Variants and ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 21 December 2023, at 3:46 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 11-23-23 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBb-D-C---bB---bBc-bca--:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout113/5eq: -0.055
Player:
Opponent:
48.70% (G:12.27% B:0.50%)
51.30% (G:15.66% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.063...-0.048) - [54.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout118/15 18/13eq: -0.056 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
48.95% (G:5.32% B:0.21%)
51.05% (G:10.02% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.063...-0.049) - [45.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80250101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Stick's rollout of the original position is above. Two plays are tied.

Below are three variants (rolled out). The two checkers on White's 4pt have been moved to her 5pt, her 2pt, or her 1pt. Three best plays, all different, result.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBb-D-C---bB---bBcb-ca--:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout118/15 18/13eq: -0.063
Player:
Opponent:
48.90% (G:5.27% B:0.20%)
51.10% (G:10.84% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.073...-0.053) - [94.6%]
Duration: 6 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.076 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
47.97% (G:12.33% B:0.46%)
52.03% (G:16.20% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.087...-0.064) - [5.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.113 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
47.06% (G:8.18% B:0.28%)
52.94% (G:10.96% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.124...-0.103) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: -0.142 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
46.97% (G:11.85% B:0.34%)
53.03% (G:16.46% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.154...-0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75584557
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBb-D-C---bB---bBc--cc--:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +0.066
Player:
Opponent:
51.61% (G:13.25% B:0.34%)
48.39% (G:11.84% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.055...+0.076) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.035 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
50.43% (G:9.12% B:0.27%)
49.57% (G:9.10% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.025...+0.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout118/15 18/13eq: +0.025 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
50.89% (G:5.75% B:0.24%)
49.11% (G:7.77% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.016...+0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.023 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
50.38% (G:10.23% B:0.26%)
49.62% (G:10.98% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.014...+0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
5.Rollout113/5eq: +0.015 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
51.10% (G:13.52% B:0.45%)
48.90% (G:12.73% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.005...+0.024) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67389627
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBb-D-C---bB---bBc--cab-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout113/5eq: +0.044
Player:
Opponent:
51.44% (G:13.07% B:0.56%)
48.56% (G:15.04% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.034...+0.055) - [99.7%]
Duration: 11 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +0.021 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
50.78% (G:13.64% B:0.44%)
49.22% (G:14.15% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.008...+0.034) - [0.3%]
Duration: 12 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout118/15 18/13eq: -0.012 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
49.97% (G:6.05% B:0.27%)
50.03% (G:8.55% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.021...-0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 33 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48073552
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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