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XGR++ disagrees with rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 21 December 2023, at 2:10 p.m.

In Response To: Try your hand at Stick's rule (Timothy Chow)

Occasionally, I encounter people who think that rollouts are a waste of time and that XGR++ is good enough. The XGR++ verdict is D/P:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab-BBBBBB---bB---bbdb---A-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.41% (G:36.59% B:4.50%) 75.02% (G:38.67% B:5.12%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.59% (G:2.38% B:0.08%) 24.98% (G:2.33% B:0.08%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.911 +1.495
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.918 (-0.082)
Double/Take:+1.038 (+0.038)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


However, the rollout indicates a big take and a borderline D/ND. Stick's rule about 3-away/many-away is one of the most useful rules I have learned from Stick.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab-BBBBBB---bB---bbdb---A-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.52% (G:37.46% B:8.71%) 73.04% (G:39.68% B:18.48%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.48% (G:2.58% B:0.07%) 26.96% (G:2.84% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.960 +1.415
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.855 (-0.007)±0.016 (+0.839..+0.870)
Double/Take:+0.862±0.025 (+0.837..+0.886)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.138)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:67.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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