XG 3-ply favors 21/16 6/3, but the rollout says that play is close to a double whopper. I like Dmitriy's analysis, but it is also worth pondering what makes the original position different from the variant position below.
           
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 52 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 102
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBABBBa-----B--A--b-Abfd-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3 6/1 | eq: -0.299 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.92% (G:2.00% B:0.05%)
62.08% (G:7.36% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.306...-0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/8 | eq: -0.423 (-0.125) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.62% (G:2.00% B:0.05%)
62.38% (G:7.48% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.428...-0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.9 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/16 6/3 | eq: -0.484 (-0.185) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.58% (G:1.65% B:0.04%)
65.42% (G:4.33% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.491...-0.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 56 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 102
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBABBBa-----B--A--c-Abed-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 6/3 | eq: -0.504 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.08% (G:1.09% B:0.02%)
66.92% (G:3.30% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.511...-0.497) - [99.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/3 6/1 | eq: -0.521 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.71% (G:1.63% B:0.04%)
66.29% (G:8.69% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.531...-0.510) - [0.5%]
Duration: 6 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release