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Position of the Day 11-28-23 - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 3 January 2024, at 8:39 p.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 11-28-23 (Stick)
In this general type of position the usual play is to take the asset (the 11pt) unless we're in dire need of a tempo hit. Here with the duplication of twos and fours the tempo play doesn't scream out as much to me but it does come out on top. If we make so our opp's sixes don't hit by pulling his outfield blot back one pip from his 10pt to his 11pt then locking up the 11pt squeaks into first play. See variant + rollout below.
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a-AD-D--AcC-a-a-db-b-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 5/3* | eq: -0.499 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.74% (G:7.93% B:0.47%)
66.26% (G:35.36% B:4.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.505...-0.494) - [85.4%]
Duration: 20 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 5/1* | eq: -0.503 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.25% (G:7.62% B:0.34%)
67.75% (G:32.99% B:2.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.509...-0.498) - [14.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/21 13/11 | eq: -0.527 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.85% (G:7.99% B:0.49%)
67.15% (G:38.32% B:2.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.538...-0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68683710
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68683710
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 144 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a-AD-D--AcCa--a-db-b-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/11 | eq: -0.399 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.93% (G:8.62% B:0.44%)
64.07% (G:33.26% B:1.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.410...-0.388) - [95.2%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 5/3* | eq: -0.413 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.51% (G:8.38% B:0.44%)
64.49% (G:32.18% B:3.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.424...-0.401) - [4.8%]
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23 5/1* | eq: -0.477 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.01% (G:7.50% B:0.30%)
66.99% (G:30.98% B:2.28%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68683710
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
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