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I'm not that ugly, rollout

Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Friday, 4 July 2008, at 5:20 p.m.

In Response To: I'm not that ugly (Stanley E. Richards)

The interesting aspect of this problem is that GNU 2ply (.211 blunder) and Snowie 3 ply (.152 blunder) were screaming at me that my cube was an atrocious play. My thoughts were that the play may be an error, but it really is not that ugly. The rollout confirms that cubing is an error, but far from a blunder.

Stanley

The score (after 0 games) is: Snowie 0, Black 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 21: Black on roll, cube decision?

Snowie	97
Black	140
Position ID: 27kFADBwt8EDQA Match ID: cAmgAAAAAAAA

• Black doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0458)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2329	(Money: +0.2332)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4206
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5794
3.	Double, take	+0.3748	-0.0458
Proper cube action:		No double, take (7.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 62.62% 13.54% 0.38% - 37.38% 15.76% 0.07% +0.2329 +0.4206 Standard error 0.15% 0.19% 0.03% - 0.15% 0.15% 0.01% 0.0045 0.0094 Player Snowie owns 2-cube 63.40% 13.87% 0.55% - 36.60% 15.66% 0.08% +0.5740 +0.3748 Standard error 0.17% 0.25% 0.05% - 0.17% 0.18% 0.01% 0.0111 0.0139
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826925630 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• I'm not that ugly
  Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 2 July 2008, at 5:01 a.m.
  • I'm not that ugly
    PersianLord -- Wednesday, 2 July 2008, at 11:48 a.m.
  • I'm not that ugly
    Stick -- Wednesday, 2 July 2008, at 3:32 p.m.
    • I'm not that ugly
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 2 July 2008, at 3:34 p.m.
      • I'm not that ugly
        Stick -- Wednesday, 2 July 2008, at 3:46 p.m.
    • I'm not that ugly
      Mislav Radica -- Thursday, 3 July 2008, at 11:13 p.m.
      • I'm not that ugly
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 4 July 2008, at 11:06 p.m.
        • I'm not that ugly
          Stanley E. Richards -- Saturday, 5 July 2008, at 3:17 a.m.
          • I'm not that ugly
            Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 6 July 2008, at 9:03 p.m.
            • I'm not that ugly
              Stanley E. Richards -- Tuesday, 8 July 2008, at 3:40 a.m.
              • I'm not that ugly
                Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 8 July 2008, at 8:27 a.m.
  • I'm not that ugly
    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 3 July 2008, at 8:44 a.m.
  • I'm not that ugly, rollout
    Stanley E. Richards -- Friday, 4 July 2008, at 5:20 p.m.
    • I'm not that ugly, rollout
      Philippe Michel -- Friday, 4 July 2008, at 8:51 p.m.