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Position of the Day 12-4-23 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 7 January 2024, at 8:17 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 12-4-23 (Stick)

It's hard to know what to play in these types of positions. It's also hard to know whether or not you should be trusting the bot's opinion, even a full rollout. There are often too many candidates for the bot to comb through on its default settings so during a rollout it may overlook many of the best plays.

How to be sure your play is ok then? You can of course up the bot's move filter settings and settings in general to get a better idea or you can just post here on BGO and hope that someone like JoH picks your play as best. Ian's play of 19/13 also comes in as a good play. In this type of position as long as you're only making a small error you're doing well. Note, there is still a lot of variance left in the rollout results but I'm not spending any more CPU time on it.

XG's 3 ply play of 23, 12 isn't doing so well.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 61
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABBBB-----------A-AfBbAA-:1:1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout119/18 17/12eq: +0.014
Player:
Opponent:		54.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.75% (G:28.30% B:5.60%)		Conf.: ± 0.023 (-0.009...+0.036) - [88.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout119/13eq: -0.006 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		53.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.35% (G:28.72% B:5.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.023 (-0.029...+0.017) - [11.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout121/15eq: -0.033 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		53.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.00% (G:29.11% B:5.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.052...-0.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 17/12eq: -0.057 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		52.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.92% (G:29.79% B:5.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.077...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61049626
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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