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Variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 8 January 2024, at 1:24 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (KenB)

To me, the obvious part of the play is 6/1. Covering a slotted 1pt is always a strategic goal in the early game, and there's nothing else good to do with the 5.

What's less obvious to me is whether to split or to come down. Generally speaking, we have to assess which is more serious: the opponent's priming threat, or the opponent's blitzing threat. Split against a prime, stay anchored against a blitz. The opponent's tall stacks and 10 checkers in the zone suggest to me a blitzing threat. On the other hand, whenever the opponent has a more advanced anchor than we do, that makes it harder for us to win a priming battle, and encourages us to split. The other thing is that we have the stronger board, which mitigates the opponent's blitzing potential.

For those who think the decision to split is obvious, I offer the variant below, in which the roll has been changed to 52.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 151
11 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Ab-B-C-C---cD---caea---B-:0:0:1:52:0:1:0:11:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout124/22 6/1eq: -0.020
Player:
Opponent:
49.56% (G:15.47% B:0.64%)
50.44% (G:17.49% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.035...-0.005) - [75.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 6/1eq: -0.028 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
48.93% (G:15.86% B:0.67%)
51.07% (G:17.01% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.043...-0.013) - [24.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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