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BGonline.org Forums
Variant
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Rollout (KenB)
Date: Monday, 8 January 2024, at 1:24 p.m.
To me, the obvious part of the play is 6/1. Covering a slotted 1pt is always a strategic goal in the early game, and there's nothing else good to do with the 5.
What's less obvious to me is whether to split or to come down. Generally speaking, we have to assess which is more serious: the opponent's priming threat, or the opponent's blitzing threat. Split against a prime, stay anchored against a blitz. The opponent's tall stacks and 10 checkers in the zone suggest to me a blitzing threat. On the other hand, whenever the opponent has a more advanced anchor than we do, that makes it harder for us to win a priming battle, and encourages us to split. The other thing is that we have the stronger board, which mitigates the opponent's blitzing potential.
For those who think the decision to split is obvious, I offer the variant below, in which the roll has been changed to 52.
White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 15111 point match pip: 151
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-Ab-B-C-C---cD---caea---B-:0:0:1:52:0:1:0:11:10 Blue to play 52
1. Rollout1 24/22 6/1 eq: -0.020
Player:
Opponent:49.56% (G:15.47% B:0.64%)
50.44% (G:17.49% B:0.66%)Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.035...-0.005) - [75.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds2. Rollout1 13/11 6/1 eq: -0.028 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:48.93% (G:15.86% B:0.67%)
51.07% (G:17.01% B:0.85%)Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.043...-0.013) - [24.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
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