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Position of the Day 12-7-23 - Two Easy? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 10 January 2024, at 7:02 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 12-7-23 - Two Easy? (Stick)

I don't believe anyone gave the exact win % but it is something we should be able to do OtB in case we need something more specific than DT for money due to the score. Anyway, as I'm sure some of you noticed and either gave me credit for not making that sort of error or were too nice to say anything about it, my "two easy" title was in reference to XG's two ply. As I've said before, most of these come from me playing on my iPad and XG's recommendation of ND/T caught me off guard. Turns out this may be too easy for a human, but two ply gets it wrong thinking ND/T by .054 with winning chances of 62.73%/37.27%.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 8
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 5
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CA--------------a--------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 59.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.187 +0.373
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.187 (-0.187)±0.000 (+0.187..+0.187)
Redouble/Take:+0.373±0.000 (+0.373..+0.373)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.627)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
66666 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48202167
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2.4 seconds

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