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bear-off cube

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 10 January 2024, at 7:35 p.m.

In Response To: bear-off cube (rambiz)

While I wouldn't necessarily use the Keith Count for this position I would still go through the process just to see. I think most players have one racing formula they use and that's it. There's nothing wrong with using multiple especially in the instances we're not sure.

With Keith we end up with 46 for the on roll player and 46 for the opponent. This would be a monster cube and a pass.

This position is more EPC friendly than Keith Count worthy so let's see what EPC gives us. Both positions are what I'd call 'nice' and nice positions waste about 7 pips so we can shoot with that if we want. When there are fewer checkers left we can take tick that down to 6 pips. My WAG here for both positions is about 6.5 for wastage but we're arguing unimportant details I believe for this position so let's stick with 7.

Using 7 pips as wastage for both sides we gets counts of 48 for the on roll player and 53 for the player being doubled. Let me remind you of what to do with these numbers.

  • The point of last take for the trailer is when he is down a number of effective pips equal to the number of rolls to go minus three.

  • You can send an initial double when you are within' 2 effective pips of his point of last take and a recube when you are within' 1 effective pip of his point of last take.

For simplification we'll say the number of rolls to go is 7. That means the point of last take for the player being doubled 7-3 or 4 pips. We currently have a difference of 5 pips (53 v 48) so this also suggests a pass.

The only issue I now have with the result is I read JoH's response and he said Trice gives us DT. I don't use Trice but believe it gives us a thin take here assuming I recalled it correctly.

  • Trice # = (leader count-5)/7 rounding down (when the race is 62 pips in length or less)

  • Count difference = trailer count – leader count

  • If count difference ≤ Trice Number = Take

Stick

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