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bear-off cube roll-out result

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Saturday, 13 January 2024, at 10:29 p.m.

In Response To: bear-off cube (rambiz)

Thank You Very Much to all the contributors.

I posted the position, because according to Trice's modified formula used by myself and XG (2 pips penalty for white for having one checker less off and one pip bonus for blue for having one more inner-point) the position is a slam dunk drop.

Stick explained in length how Keith's count also indicates a pass. He also told us how to calculate the EPC for this sort of low wastage position, which is about seven pips. Applying the number of rolls minus three rule for the point of last take (POLT), Stick concluded that that method predicts a pass.

John O'Hagen told us that there is no need to complicate things by using the modifed Trice, when the wastage (EPC-wise) is about the same for both sides. In that case white is right on his POLT and has a bordeline take. John also mentioned the work of Arthur Bejamin who kindly also chimed in...

Ian Shaw thinks also the bare Trice (unmodified) is the way to approach this position, which predicts a take.

Arthur Benjamin's work estimates the POLT to be doubler's EPC plus 1/9 of it, which amounts to (41+7)+1/9(41+7)~48+5.5=53.5 . Now, since white's EPC is ~46+7=53, white can take the double.

Christian Munc-Christensen, who -in reply to a similar post of mine on facebook- had told me once before , that two pips penalty is way too much for these sort of positions, announces an up-coming book with a secret formula!? Please put us out of our misery Christian!

I also checked the isight method. It also predicts a pass.

Many thanks to all of you once again.




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 46
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AABD------------cdb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76,795% (G:0,000% B:0,000%) 76,744% (G:0,000% B:0,000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23,205% (G:0,000% B:0,000%) 23,256% (G:0,000% B:0,000%)
Cubeless Equities +0,5359 +1,0698
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,7945 (-0,1602)±0,0022 (+0,7923..+0,7967)
Double/Take:+0,9547±0,0030 (+0,9517..+0,9577)
Double/Pass:+1,0000 (+0,0453)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 1 minute 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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