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Position of the Day 12-17-23 - Cube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 20 January 2024, at 8:55 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 12-17-23 - Cube (Stick)

A meticulous combing of the opp's upcoming rolls should help point us in the right direction for the T/P decision. [64 63 61] all leave double shots so we win ~4 games right there. [44 33] both leave a single shot. And as others pointed out the race is closer than it appears with the opp's gapped five and four points that aren't likely to be filled.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 84
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CBBBBB----------b-eAAdca-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.14% (G:2.47% B:0.03%) 74.32% (G:2.46% B:0.03%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.86% (G:1.43% B:0.03%) 25.68% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.493 +0.994
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.714 (-0.195)±0.005 (+0.709..+0.718)
Double/Take:+0.908±0.007 (+0.901..+0.915)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.092)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77664942
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 29.1 seconds

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