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Position of the Day 12-24-23 - Action Jackson - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 29 January 2024, at 5:30 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 12-24-23 - Action Jackson (Stick)

We have a vote for ND/B and D/B, how often does that ever happen?!

While it is a rare situation we have here doubling when we're not even the favorite, there are no beavers involved. (though never forget that two beavers are better than one) There's far too much volatility to not cube here as sixteen rolls are pretty crushing.

If it does go DT now and we fan the opponent is not TG.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 82
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBCB---a--B--aa-cdab-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.06% (G:27.27% B:2.61%) 46.68% (G:29.03% B:3.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.94% (G:9.53% B:0.16%) 53.32% (G:10.09% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities +0.143 +0.304
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.201 (-0.218)±0.007 (-0.208..-0.194)
Double/Take:+0.016±0.013 (+0.004..+0.029)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.984)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88837920
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 29.0 seconds

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