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American Football Strategy Decision

Posted By: Sam Pottle
Date: Tuesday, 13 February 2024, at 12:12 p.m.

In Response To: American Football Strategy Decision (Bob Koca)

Brian Burke ran a bunch of sims at the time. The team with first possession won 50.19% if the other team is going for 2 after matching touchdowns, and 50.29% if they aren't.

So, you should receive, and you should go for 2, but both by really tiny margins. At the least this suggests that the new rule does a great job of minimizing the luck of the coin toss.

https://twitter.com/bburkeESPN/status/1509266427089506304

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