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Position of the Day 02-10-24 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 19 February 2024, at 4:53 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-10-24 (Stick)

If you lived your entire bg career by simply dropping any reasonable cube where the opponent had his best five points made and you were on the bar you'd do just fine. It's tough to find takes in these situations. Even here where the opponent has two unsplit checkers back and we have a solid four prime it's still a small drop. For the worthwhile reference position see variant #1 below.

The second variant shows how important it is if the prime is moved forward even though that takes two checkers out of the zone.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b---BCBD---cC-----bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.49% (G:37.71% B:0.24%) 66.84% (G:38.89% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.51% (G:6.31% B:0.31%) 33.16% (G:6.71% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities +0.643 +1.317
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.787 (-0.213)±0.010 (+0.777..+0.797)
Double/Take:+1.040 (+0.040)±0.018 (+1.022..+1.058)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 33.1 seconds

Variant #1
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b---BCCC---cC-----bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.50% (G:36.69% B:0.25%) 65.81% (G:38.22% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.50% (G:6.75% B:0.36%) 34.19% (G:7.01% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.608 +1.255
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.752 (-0.227)±0.006 (+0.746..+0.758)
Double/Take:+0.979±0.010 (+0.969..+0.989)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.021)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds

Variant #2
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b--BBCB----cE-----bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.91% (G:39.22% B:0.34%) 63.48% (G:39.21% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.09% (G:8.59% B:0.47%) 36.52% (G:8.53% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities +0.563 +1.150
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.671 (-0.171)±0.017 (+0.654..+0.688)
Double/Take:+0.842±0.025 (+0.817..+0.867)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.158)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 36.5 seconds

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