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Position of the Day 02-14-24 - Take/Pass/TG? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 24 February 2024, at 5:42 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-14-24 - Take/Pass/TG? (Stick)

While it's quite easy to estimate our games won, 9 immediate games as we cash when we're not hit then 1 out of the remaining 27 from sludge equity, the issues is we lose too many gammons. There are six immediate rolls that hit both checkers and then of course the second checker usually gets picked up easily when the opponent hits now with a three opposed to an ace or five as next turn, if we fail to enter immediately, he'll generally have a triple shot to pick up the other checker.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 45
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-EDbBBAbA----------cbbbb--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.62% (G:22.98% B:0.81%) 72.21% (G:22.72% B:0.81%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.38% (G:5.93% B:0.01%) 27.79% (G:6.17% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.611 +1.235
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.731 (-0.269)±0.004 (+0.727..+0.736)
Redouble/Take:+1.093 (+0.093)±0.008 (+1.086..+1.101)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19.3 seconds

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