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Mis-Match

Posted By: juggler
Date: Friday, 1 March 2024, at 10:32 a.m.

In Response To: Mis-Match (Stick)

You got that right. I was offered the cube and took. I was playing casually and didn't consider match equity in detail. I mechanically thought "good take in money" and "about equal score, so money eval is about right in the match, too much equity to throw it away". The first thought was true; the second thought is not true if a pass is still about equal score, but a take means double match point.

The mistake is huge. I lose 500 millipoints "money equivalent" (since the entire match has 111 moves, that's almost 5 mp/move!); Blue's match winning chances are almost 60% after a pass (58.5% without a cube, so not that much of a difference) and more than 70% after a take.

It is really just a matter of match score; as you estimated correctly, it's not even a cube in money, and a monster blunder not to take.

I thought it's an interesting position because of its unusually large evaluation difference between a money game and at the match score.

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