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Position of the Day 02-27-24 - Odd cube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 8 March 2024, at 10:43 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-27-24 - Odd cube (Stick)

So this is the borderline T/P for this specific position. What's kind of interesting is that moving a seemingly meaningless outfield checker around for the on roll player results in making it a clear pass. If we move the checker forward or backward it's drop city. (variant rollouts below)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 108
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ABBBBC-a---ba----B-bbcbbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.40% (G:17.96% B:0.11%) 71.95% (G:17.80% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.60% (G:5.79% B:0.20%) 28.05% (G:6.37% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.569 +1.104
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.817 (-0.175)±0.002 (+0.815..+0.819)
Double/Take:+0.993±0.004 (+0.989..+0.996)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.007)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds

Variant #1
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 108
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 89
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ABBBBCa----ba----B-bbcbbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.51% (G:18.81% B:0.13%) 73.25% (G:18.79% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.49% (G:5.54% B:0.16%) 26.75% (G:6.23% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities +0.603 +1.180
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.831 (-0.169)±0.008 (+0.824..+0.839)
Double/Take:+1.068 (+0.068)±0.014 (+1.054..+1.081)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9.7 seconds

Variant #2
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 108
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ABBBBC--a--ba----B-bbcbbA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.40% (G:18.63% B:0.10%) 72.98% (G:18.47% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.60% (G:5.61% B:0.19%) 27.02% (G:5.74% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities +0.597 +1.172
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.837 (-0.163)±0.006 (+0.830..+0.843)
Double/Take:+1.065 (+0.065)±0.010 (+1.054..+1.075)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9.4 seconds

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