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Position of the Day 02-28-24 - All options cube - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 8 March 2024, at 10:55 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-28-24 - All options cube (Stick)

So ++ thought this was a clear drop worth 1.1. Rollout tinkers it down to a small pass. The biggest issue I see that wasn't mentioned is the player cubing has an easy go of it the rest of the game. Plays are near forced and there's almost no opportunity to err. If we were to take this cube though and turn things around there's a decent amount of non trivial decisions I'd say that aren't super obvious.

It should be apparent that moving the five prime forward as seen in the variant below results in a comfortable take as we'll be able to run off some of those gammon losses easier.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 176
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 76
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---a-BCBBB--a---a----dcbcD:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.15% (G:51.98% B:1.72%) 60.23% (G:52.03% B:1.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.85% (G:3.54% B:0.09%) 39.77% (G:3.45% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.704 +1.412
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.812 (-0.188)±0.009 (+0.803..+0.821)
Redouble/Take:+1.022 (+0.022)±0.013 (+1.009..+1.035)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.9%
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 166
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 77
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--a-BBCBB---a---a----dcbcD:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.97% (G:47.90% B:1.63%) 59.08% (G:47.93% B:1.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.03% (G:3.75% B:0.10%) 40.92% (G:3.66% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.636 +1.278
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.741 (-0.137)±0.013 (+0.728..+0.754)
Redouble/Take:+0.878±0.019 (+0.859..+0.897)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.122)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 36.6 seconds

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