While those who replied got it right there wasn't a lot of evidence provided that would give me faith they would have made the right play in the variant below.
We all know how much I despise the 22pt anchor so I do look for excuses to leave it. I think this is a common enough example to perhaps be of some future use realizing with this sort of structure the number of men in the zone will make the difference.
The extra checker in the zone, even put on the same point as another spare, not only adds the ammo even if it isn't diversified but also changes the race fairly significantly. Pretty big swing equity wise between the original and the variant.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aB-B-C-B---dD---bbcc-B---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/13 | eq: -0.323 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.32% (G:9.43% B:0.27%)
57.68% (G:17.06% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.335...-0.310) - [100.0%]
Duration: 55.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0.404 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.46% (G:9.42% B:0.18%)
61.54% (G:10.81% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.417...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 132 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aB-B-C-B---cD---bbdc-B---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0.461 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.06% (G:8.16% B:0.16%)
62.94% (G:10.48% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.472...-0.451) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/13 | eq: -0.502 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.74% (G:7.53% B:0.25%)
62.26% (G:19.15% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.512...-0.491) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|