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Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt - Rollout Yes but ...

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Thursday, 14 March 2024, at 10:44 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt - Rollout (Stick)

Considering the variant proposed by Stick and his interesting conclusion, look now at these two variants (derived from Stick variant) where a spare checker on the Blue 13 point is moved forward (first position) to the 8 point or to the 6 point (second position).









 


White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1 XGID=-aB-B-C-C---cC---bbdc-B---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 63 1. Rollout1 22/13 eq: -0,398 Player: Opponent: 40,29% (G:8,14% B:0,25%) 59,71% (G:16,80% B:0,37%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,409...-0,387) - [100,0%] Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds 2. Rollout1 13/4 eq: -0,449 (-0,051) Player: Opponent: 37,26% (G:8,06% B:0,16%) 62,74% (G:10,83% B:0,46%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,461...-0,438) - [0,0%] Duration: 20 minutes 32 seconds 3. 4-ply 13/10 8/2 eq: -0,527 (-0,129) Player: Opponent: 34,86% (G:7,09% B:0,11%) 65,14% (G:12,78% B:0,50%) 4. 4-ply 22/16 8/5 eq: -0,546 (-0,148) Player: Opponent: 37,60% (G:9,24% B:0,27%) 62,40% (G:24,31% B:1,18%) 5. 3-ply 13/7 8/5 eq: -0,557 (-0,158) Player: Opponent: 35,01% (G:8,47% B:0,20%) 64,99% (G:14,83% B:0,67%) 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1 XGID=-aB-B-D-B---cC---bbdc-B---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 63 1. Rollout1 22/13 eq: -0,338 Player: Opponent: 41,53% (G:9,22% B:0,26%) 58,47% (G:16,31% B:0,43%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,347...-0,328) - [100,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds 2. Rollout1 13/4 eq: -0,432 (-0,095) Player: Opponent: 37,46% (G:8,71% B:0,15%) 62,54% (G:10,80% B:0,48%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,445...-0,419) - [0,0%] Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds 3. 3-ply 22/16 13/10 eq: -0,578 (-0,241) Player: Opponent: 36,01% (G:8,58% B:0,29%) 63,99% (G:21,56% B:0,92%) 4. 3-ply 13/7 6/3 eq: -0,591 (-0,253) Player: Opponent: 34,17% (G:7,93% B:0,19%) 65,83% (G:14,70% B:0,68%) 5. 3-ply 8/5 8/2 eq: -0,620 (-0,283) Player: Opponent: 32,27% (G:6,38% B:0,11%) 67,73% (G:13,13% B:0,51%) 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

It is worth mentioning that despite the number of men in the zone (10) aiming at Blue's 22 anchor point, the correct play is to run off the anchor.

Why ? I guess it is because playing 13/4 will burn the last spare on our 13 point. On the mid-term we will face a dilemma between hitting or not hitting when White run with her last checker or at least risking a disconnection with our 22 anchor point.

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt
  Stick -- Sunday, 10 March 2024, at 6:03 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 10 March 2024, at 9:51 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt
      pierrez -- Monday, 11 March 2024, at 10:40 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 13 March 2024, at 2:15 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt - Rollout Yes but ...
      pierrez -- Thursday, 14 March 2024, at 10:44 a.m.
    • PotD 03-03-24 - Two more variants (with rollouts)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 March 2024, at 6:53 p.m.