While I did play 11, 7* OtB I had to twist my own arm to do so. The reasons being were that even after we hit we're still pretty far down in the race so springing the back checkers in hope of containing the opponent's remaining watermelon seed wasn't that appealing and the opponent has all the remaining checkers in the zone. It may not seem too scary that the opponent has 14 checkers in the zone since he has no new made points, he'll be on the bar, and we have the stronger board but it opens up two things. First, doublets from the bar because crushing. Second, upcoming turns. Yes, we can probably split now and get away with it but what happens in the near future when we're focused on both sides of the board with only two dice to play? We'll want to anchor up or escape those back men but we'll also want to focus on containing the opponent's checker. In doing that we may leave ourselves vulnerable to an attack.
Note in the variant below, a more standard looking position where the opponent still holds the midpoint, now it's clearly correct to break off this pos of an anchor. The race is now much, much closer and the whole world isn't in the zone.
          
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---B--DaD----C--bdce--B---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: -0.374 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.85% (G:9.54% B:0.26%)
60.15% (G:11.83% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.382...-0.367) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/20 8/7* | eq: -0.398 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.16% (G:8.89% B:0.25%)
60.84% (G:14.61% B:0.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.404...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---B--DaD---bC--bccd--B---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 22/20 8/7* | eq: -0.389 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.86% (G:10.20% B:0.30%)
61.14% (G:13.25% B:0.59%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 8/7* | eq: -0.460 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.53% (G:10.33% B:0.29%)
63.47% (G:11.81% B:0.48%) | |
|