I found this one particularly tough OtB. Like John said, we basically know what the dmp play is (rollout below) and it's hard to argue with that if you're sure of what that is. Being correct by almost 2% at dmp is normally enough to equate to being right for money in most positions.
One of the other sayings that generally holds true is (especially in the early game) 'if you don't know what to play look to the stacks'. This is my own saying and serves me quite well at times. Here we do have ten men in the zone with a stacked six point. On the other hand we're up 24! pips after the roll so running seems logical too.
If we take a look at variant #1 where I take a man off the stacked 6pt and return it back to the midpoint now the plays are even closer. We took away reasons for pointing by having a less stacked men in the zone position but we also took away reasons for funning being that we're not up as much in the race.
Money variant #2 where all I've done is rolled a checker from our stacked 6pt to the 5pt is a bit surprising in that XGR++ still thought making the 2pt was correct by .050 when it turns out according to rollout the plays are much closer. While I did unstack in doing so I also made it that our follow up attack is much smoother as we have our spares spread across more points.
All in all I wouldn't say I learned much other than the next time something similar comes up I'll remember this position and maybe that will have some guidance.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 140
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa--BE-C---dD---b-dc---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2* 6/2 | eq: +0.594 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.05% (G:21.60% B:0.92%)
36.95% (G:8.49% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.579...+0.610) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: +0.554 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.64% (G:11.99% B:0.56%)
35.36% (G:7.49% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.542...+0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
DMP
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | | 1 point match | pip: 140
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa--BE-C---dD---b-dc---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: +0.285 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.23% (G:16.33% B:1.66%)
35.77% (G:7.32% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.280...+0.289) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37.4 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/2* 6/2 | eq: +0.247 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.33% (G:24.95% B:3.78%)
37.67% (G:8.58% B:0.60%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.242...+0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Money Variant #1
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa--BD-C---dE---b-dc---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2* 6/2 | eq: +0.452 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.46% (G:18.95% B:0.74%)
39.54% (G:9.83% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.444...+0.459) - [99.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: +0.439 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.38% (G:10.65% B:0.46%)
37.62% (G:8.17% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.433...+0.445) - [0.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Money Variant #2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa--CD-C---dD---b-dc---A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2* 6/2 | eq: +0.653 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.25% (G:23.57% B:1.00%)
35.75% (G:7.95% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.646...+0.660) - [99.3%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: +0.641 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.42% (G:13.08% B:0.54%)
33.58% (G:7.11% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.635...+0.648) - [0.7%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|