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Position of the Day 03-07-24 - More weird cubes - Rollout Surprise

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 17 March 2024, at 2:20 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-07-24 - More weird cubes (Stick)

The rollout only qualifies as a surprise if you know that ++ thinks this is a pretty big blunder to cube costing 0.134. The rollout interjects some sanity into the analysis. I'd definitely be cubing OtB as Jim said because who really knows what's going on? Make your opponent figure it out. I cut short a +/+ rollout which had the decision to cube dead borderline at the time but still with plenty of variance left.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 80
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bB-BCBB----------AbbbcdC:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.61% (G:17.84% B:0.65%) 69.26% (G:18.62% B:0.65%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.39% (G:17.84% B:0.21%) 30.74% (G:17.76% B:0.20%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.377 +0.796
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.681±0.007 (+0.674..+0.688)
Redouble/Take:+0.648 (-0.033)±0.016 (+0.632..+0.663)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.319)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.6%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds

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