I believe in a chouette this is misplayed 5*(2) 4*(2) all day long. Usually putting two on the bar is a pretty good thing to do but there's still a lot of game ahead of us here so making a play that has less short sighted potential is the way to go.
If we're not putting the opponent on the bar we need to safety our blot via 16(2) making that part of the play virtually forced. After that thanks to XG I also like stepping up our anchor even though we're wildly down in the race rather than making the 12pt which leaves our position with too few playable spares. Even though greatly down in the race as the position stands I think it's safe to say we're likely to hit something in the not so distant future if desired.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/21(2) 17/16(2) | eq: -0.202 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.86% (G:8.28% B:0.30%)
62.14% (G:18.20% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.209...-0.194) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12(2) 6/5*(2) | eq: -0.219 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.56% (G:9.01% B:0.36%)
61.44% (G:22.50% B:0.93%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.228...-0.210) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 17/16(2) 13/12(2) | eq: -0.222 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.92% (G:8.33% B:0.32%)
62.08% (G:20.37% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.230...-0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 6/5*(2) 5/4*(2) | eq: -0.248 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.73% (G:9.18% B:0.35%)
62.27% (G:23.21% B:0.91%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.261...-0.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.2 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 22/21(2) 13/12(2) | eq: -0.279 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.61% (G:8.09% B:0.30%)
63.39% (G:23.11% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.290...-0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
