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PotD 03-03-24 - Two more variants (with rollouts)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2024, at 6:53 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-03-24 - Run off 22pt - Rollout (Stick)

Stick posted a position where Blue's 22/13 is best, and an interesting variant where a White spare has been adjusted from 13pt to 7pt and Blue's 13/4 is best.

Extending that, I offer a variant where another White spare has been adjusted from 13pt to 7pt, and a third play is best for Blue (see below). There is another variant below that.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-B-C-B---bD---bbec-B---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -0.4445
Player:
Opponent:
38.10% (G:8.50% B:0.25%)
61.90% (G:13.73% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ±0.0058 (-0.4503...-0.4388) - [95.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout113/4eq: -0.4515 (-0.0069)
Player:
Opponent:
37.22% (G:7.46% B:0.18%)
62.78% (G:10.10% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ±0.0056 (-0.4571...-0.4459) - [4.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74105268
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now, from the above position, make two spare changes: (a) White 6pt to 4pt. (b) Blue's spare from 13pt to 8pt. This results in a fourth play being best (see below).

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-B-C-C---bC---bbdcaB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout113/7 8/5eq: -0.5380
Player:
Opponent:
34.36% (G:8.40% B:0.24%)
65.64% (G:16.29% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ±0.0153 (-0.5533...-0.5227) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout113/4eq: -0.5835 (-0.0455)
Player:
Opponent:
34.27% (G:6.58% B:0.16%)
65.73% (G:11.81% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ±0.0142 (-0.5977...-0.5692) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 8/2eq: -0.6424 (-0.1044)
Player:
Opponent:
32.49% (G:6.32% B:0.16%)
67.51% (G:11.96% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ±0.0116 (-0.6540...-0.6308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout113/7 6/3eq: -0.6777 (-0.1397)
Player:
Opponent:
32.46% (G:7.03% B:0.21%)
67.54% (G:17.08% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ±0.0154 (-0.6931...-0.6622) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 09 seconds
5.Rollout122/13eq: -0.6792 (-0.1412)
Player:
Opponent:
34.96% (G:7.74% B:0.34%)
65.04% (G:24.86% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ±0.0143 (-0.6936...-0.6649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 36 seconds
6.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -0.8002 (-0.2622)
Player:
Opponent:
30.92% (G:7.09% B:0.28%)
69.08% (G:19.75% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ±0.0159 (-0.8161...-0.7843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74105268
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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