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Bot Battle #5 Rollout

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2024, at 11:18 p.m.

In Response To: Bot Battle #5 (Jason Lee)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 160
9 point match
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C--BcCa-ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.90% (G:20.62% B:1.30%) 61.07% (G:20.70% B:1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.10% (G:11.38% B:0.69%) 38.93% (G:11.58% B:0.70%)
Cubeless Equities +0.299 +0.647
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.546±0.018 (+0.528..+0.564)
Double/Take:+0.508 (-0.039)±0.021 (+0.487..+0.528)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.454)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I have been missing cubes lately, so I am actively looking to not miss any. I had a sneaking suspicion this was close, and possibly not a cube, but I would rather throw it early anyway. Chuck didn't want to cube, he said if we were trailing -5/-9, he would do it. At that score, it's a cube. I strong armed him into cubing, and I have no regrets.

JLee

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