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Position of the Day 03-12-24 - Options w/66 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 22 March 2024, at 9:02 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-12-24 - Options w/66 (Stick)

UBK has good company in his play of 5(2) 4*(2) as that's also the play XG 3 ply makes. It's rare we'll see make the next two best inner board points and putting a man on the bar as incorrect, nevertheless a blunder all while duping a number and the opponent having another blot to pick up. So what's the deal? It should be noted that even with the cube already turned this play remains a blunder.

If we set up the best play we have the 15 v. 1 scenario (except that it's 15 v. 5!) that is often correct. Here is a shade different as the opponent is anchored out on our bar point but since we have so many outfield points made and control of the rest of the outfield the opponent has a hard time finding playable numbers. He really needs fives in droves. Since we have no board yet and a 35 pip racing deficit after the roll we'll still find a way to lose this often enough but it's interesting that we're already a game favorite.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 193
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----a-BdB-CB-B----AcbbaCb-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 66

1.Rollout123/17(2) 23/11eq: +0.220
Player:
Opponent:		55.25% (G:14.10% B:0.59%)
44.75% (G:13.92% B:0.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.207...+0.234) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout123/11 18/6eq: +0.180 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		54.36% (G:15.33% B:0.60%)
45.64% (G:15.00% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.169...+0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout211/5(2) 10/4*(2) eq: +0.120 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:		53.33% (G:18.61% B:0.83%)
46.67% (G:19.56% B:0.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.100...+0.139) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.6 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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