                      |
| ||||
| XGID=--BBBBBa-------AA-AbAbebcA:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 83,33% (G:71,84% B:2,07%) | 83,50% (G:73,27% B:0,71%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 16,67% (G:0,87% B:0,07%) | 16,50% (G:0,76% B:0,00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,995 | +0,980 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1,003 | ±0,003 (+1,000..+1,006) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,980 (-0,023) | ±0,004 (+0,976..+0,984) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (-0,003) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 95,3% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 7 minutes 10 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
When my opponent redoubled to 8, I instantly dropped, being sure that it was a blunder and being happy to avoid a gammon and the loss of the match.
But I was wrong on both sides of the cube action.
So retrospectively, how to deal with this position ?
From the White side, accepting a 8 cube means you need to find 16% of win. But where do they hide ?
Half of Blue rolls are less than 8, and XG shows that, in this sequence White (with a checker on the bar) wins are around 20% !!! How come a such high figure. Not clear to me.
From the other half of Blue rolls, Blue has 14 hitting numbers (don’t forget the 11) , XG indicates that Blue retains between 5% - 7% of wins (even with 2 or 3 checkers on the bar).
So all in all, White is at the borderline Take/Pass.
From the Blue side, computations with equity at this score and % of total wins (X) and gammons (G) show that as long as G > 2X -100, you are better playing for the gammon. It is the case here.
But I don’t know the size of the error if you don’t respect the above formula.
OTB, as Blue, I would have played on for the gammon, without thinking.
If someone wants to shed more light, or derive the correct cube action in a more concise analysis, please instruct us.