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XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 27 March 2024, at 1:37 p.m.

In Response To: Not your usual pay-now-or-later decision (Timothy Chow)

XG 3-ply favors clearing the 6pt.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.3-ply6/3 6/1eq: -0.359
Player:
Opponent:
34.38% (G:8.66% B:0.07%)
65.62% (G:25.21% B:0.31%)
2.3-ply13/10 13/8eq: -0.364 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
33.75% (G:11.85% B:0.16%)
66.25% (G:27.10% B:0.68%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

But the rollout begs to differ:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.442
Player:
Opponent:
31.48% (G:12.31% B:0.15%)
68.52% (G:28.79% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.451...-0.433) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.585 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:
28.35% (G:6.26% B:0.03%)
71.65% (G:30.07% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.595...-0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
Unlimited Game
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----cbbb---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.599
Player:
Opponent:
27.81% (G:6.71% B:0.03%)
72.19% (G:30.23% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.609...-0.589) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.618 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
26.88% (G:7.12% B:0.06%)
73.12% (G:30.85% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.626...-0.611) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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