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Position of the Day 03-15-24 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 27 March 2024, at 5:29 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-15-24 (Stick)

I was surprised this is a take. The 14 shots are absolutely murderous (and some other rolls like [62 52 32 66 11] ain't too shabby) and even when we miss the opponent is still in fairly rough shape needing to cover and counter prime our one checker back versus his three back. I might play this out some later to see where all the sludge equity stems from exactly.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-bBBBBC---bB--Abbcab--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.91% (G:24.30% B:1.22%) 69.35% (G:26.06% B:1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.09% (G:5.34% B:0.21%) 30.65% (G:5.67% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.598 +1.206
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.823 (-0.141)±0.008 (+0.815..+0.830)
Double/Take:+0.964±0.014 (+0.950..+0.978)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.036)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds

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