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Bear-Off Cube Action at the Score - OtB and Analysis

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Saturday, 30 March 2024, at 9:49 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-Off Cube Action at the Score (rambiz)

The position is from an online match and my opponent doubled correctly since he is on roll in a quasi three-roll position and about to lose his market.

I knew my take point is between %17(live) and %26(dead) and guessed that I am a bit better than the %21 corresponding to a pure three-roll position but never close to %26 my dead cube take-point. So I needed some cube vig to make it a take. Over the board, and given the limited time and me being impatient in general, I couldn't see a sequence, I could redouble efficiently so I passed.

To my surprise, the 2-ply analysis on Galaxy thought it is a take!





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 9
7 point match
pip: 12
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ABAA-----------------abb-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 2-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:78,052% (G:0,000% B:0,000%)
Opponent Winning Chances:21,948% (G:0,000% B:0,000%)
Cubeless Equities +0,5610 +1,1778
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,7000 (-0,2107)
Redouble/Take:+0,9107
Redouble/Pass:+1,0000 (+0,0893)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

So where was the flaw in my line of thoughts?!
I put the position manually in XG, and lo and behold, it becomes a solid pass on 4-ply and higher settings.
It turns out that I did not need an efficient recube to 8 to take, since my redoubling point is as low as %20.85~%21, however I need to have at least ~%24 to take and auto-recube to 8, which is the match winning chances from 7a-3a.
Somehow, it feels I passed correctly for the wrong reason.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 9
7 point match
pip: 12
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ABAA-----------------abb-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78,052% (G:0,000% B:0,000%) 78,052% (G:0,000% B:0,000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21,948% (G:0,000% B:0,000%) 21,948% (G:0,000% B:0,000%)
Cubeless Equities +0,5610 +1,1778
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,7650 (-0,2350)
Redouble/Take:+1,0436 (+0,0436)
Redouble/Pass:+1,0000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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