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XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Another Variant (with rollout)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 31 March 2024, at 4:19 a.m.

In Response To: XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Rollout + variant (Timothy Chow)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game pip: 92 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: -0.442
	Player: Opponent: 31.48% (G:12.31% B:0.15%) 68.52% (G:28.79% B:1.00%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.451...-0.433) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/3 6/1	eq: -0.585 (-0.143)
	Player: Opponent: 28.35% (G:6.26% B:0.03%) 71.65% (G:30.07% B:1.03%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.595...-0.575) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

In Tim's original position (above), bringing two checkers down is a wipeout (best play by more than .1). Below is a variant in which the same play is a blunder.

Tim's unslotted-2pt variant (see his post) is also instructive.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 80 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCB-bBb----bD-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	6/3 6/1	eq: -0.456
	Player: Opponent: 31.52% (G:8.73% B:0.04%) 68.48% (G:25.42% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.467...-0.445) - [100.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: -0.531 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 28.04% (G:12.07% B:0.10%) 71.96% (G:28.27% B:1.24%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.539...-0.522) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 00 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48802333 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Not your usual pay-now-or-later decision
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 24 March 2024, at 1:13 p.m.
  • Not your usual pay-now-or-later decision
    rambiz -- Tuesday, 26 March 2024, at 6:45 p.m.
  • XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Rollout + variant
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 27 March 2024, at 1:37 p.m.
    • XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Another Variant (with rollout)
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 31 March 2024, at 4:19 a.m.
      • XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Another Variant (with rollout)
        konstantin -- Tuesday, 2 April 2024, at 9:50 p.m.
        • XG 3-ply play is a whopper! Another Variant (with rollout)
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 April 2024, at 4:33 a.m.