I figured, esp. OtB, it would be hard for many players not to play the tempting double shift + double hit. Putting two men on the bar when you've doubled having a near equal strength board and 11 men in the zone seems like a decent recipe. The obvious issue is we always have to compare all that warm goodness to what other plays are available to us.
Turns out that play is a near blunder. Setting up plays making the ace straight out appealed to me the most, 1*(2). As for the other top two non hitting plays they had merit but it was simply too hard to judge their worth. I didn't like leaving another blot even if it was in the outfield as obviously the opponent will try to attack me in some scenarios. Not overly likely to be successful though I guess. Those plays are very strong when we're left unmolested this turn.
See below for a variant where if we create another blot for the opponent (or builder if we were to eschew hitting) the double hit now comes out on top, though not by much.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa-BBCB--B--BA--bbd-c-bA-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/11 10/7 10/4 | eq: +0.278 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.52% (G:19.01% B:0.91%)
34.48% (G:11.87% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.273...+0.283) - [81.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1*(2) | eq: +0.275 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.70% (G:20.54% B:0.70%)
35.30% (G:11.18% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.271...+0.278) - [10.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 14/5 10/7 | eq: +0.274 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.64% (G:18.68% B:0.92%)
34.36% (G:11.99% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.270...+0.278) - [8.6%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 14/2* | eq: +0.262 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.65% (G:20.78% B:1.08%)
34.35% (G:14.78% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.257...+0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 10/4(2) | eq: +0.247 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.65% (G:19.04% B:0.86%)
35.35% (G:12.80% B:0.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.240...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.9 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 5/2*(2) 4/1*(2) | eq: +0.202 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.82% (G:24.97% B:0.48%)
39.18% (G:13.92% B:0.90%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.194...+0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa-BBCB--B--BAa-bbc-c-bA-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/2*(2) 4/1*(2) | eq: +0.314 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.15% (G:33.13% B:1.34%)
37.85% (G:13.71% B:1.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.308...+0.319) - [99.9%]
Duration: 40.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1*(2) | eq: +0.301 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.87% (G:25.27% B:1.13%)
36.13% (G:11.45% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.295...+0.307) - [0.1%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 14/11 10/7 10/4 | eq: +0.274 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.92% (G:20.34% B:1.15%)
35.08% (G:11.88% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.267...+0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.3 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 14/5 10/7 | eq: +0.262 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.79% (G:19.53% B:1.17%)
35.21% (G:12.02% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.254...+0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.4 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 14/2* | eq: +0.249 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.63% (G:23.41% B:1.55%)
35.37% (G:15.55% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.239...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.6 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|