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Position of the Day 03-19-24 - Big cube? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 3 April 2024, at 10:30 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-19-24 - Big cube? (Stick)

So Bob's analysis was solid but came to the wrong conclusion. Perhaps in part of lumping [21 11] with the 8 other meh rolls. [21 11] if we look at the dice distribution are actually ever so slightly better than hitting with a 7! That's because the opponent has to roll and move and if he doesn't hit you with an indirect his rolls are a bit zugzwangish. Or it may stem from how often when we're hit do we win which a little harder to estimate given that it isn't if the opponent hits us the game is over.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 87
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 36
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BC-DBB------a------AAbff-:3:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.19% (G:3.03% B:0.00%) 76.33% (G:3.03% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.81% (G:0.65% B:0.01%) 23.67% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.547 +1.101
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.603 (-0.291)±0.003 (+0.600..+0.606)
Redouble/Take:+0.894±0.007 (+0.887..+0.902)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.106)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2.8 seconds

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