BGonline.org Forums

PotD 03-16-24 - "4pt/5pt or Hit" - two more Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 4 April 2024, at 3:08 a.m.

In Response To: PotD 03-16-24 - "4pt or Hit" - Variant and Rollout (Stick)

Right. The original decision is substantially closer with 42, and so the 6/13 adjustment crosses it over.

Below is a contrasting variant of your 6/13 roll=42 variant.

(There is another variant below that.)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 173 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----D-Ca--dE---bBd-b--A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	8/4 6/4	eq: +0.1277
	Player: Opponent: 53.09% (G:14.23% B:0.60%) 46.91% (G:12.80% B:0.47%) Conf.: ±0.0112 (+0.1165...+0.1389) - [99.4%] Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/9*	eq: +0.1066 (-0.0212)
	Player: Opponent: 53.04% (G:13.93% B:0.69%) 46.96% (G:14.00% B:0.52%) Conf.: ±0.0122 (+0.0944...+0.1187) - [0.6%] Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 99997828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In order for 13/9* to be best with 31, the 6/13 adjustment is not by itself sufficient (though it did reduce the error from .094 to .038, as Stick demonstrated in his initial rollout post). However, a second adjustment (moving Blue's anchor from 18pt to 20pt) is sufficient -- see below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 177 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----D-Ca--eE---b-dBb--A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	13/9*	eq: -0.0323
	Player: Opponent: 48.95% (G:12.36% B:0.41%) 51.05% (G:12.38% B:0.48%) Conf.: ±0.0079 (-0.0403...-0.0244) - [97.6%] Duration: 4 hours 47 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.0433 (-0.0110)
	Player: Opponent: 48.74% (G:12.52% B:0.40%) 51.26% (G:12.10% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0075 (-0.0508...-0.0359) - [2.4%] Duration: 4 hours 35 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 39735259 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-16-24 - 5pt or Hit
  Stick -- Tuesday, 26 March 2024, at 6:03 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-16-24 - 5pt or Hit
    rambiz -- Tuesday, 26 March 2024, at 7:13 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-16-24 - 5pt or Hit
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 March 2024, at 9:13 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-16-24 - 5pt or Hit - Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 29 March 2024, at 8:40 p.m.
    • PotD 03-16-24 - "4pt or Hit" - Variant and Rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 31 March 2024, at 7:29 a.m.
      • PotD 03-16-24 - "4pt or Hit" - Variant and Rollout
        Stick -- Sunday, 31 March 2024, at 9:09 p.m.
        • PotD 03-16-24 - "4pt/5pt or Hit" - two more Variants
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 April 2024, at 3:08 a.m.