Konstantin wrote, "The right move is a big blunder at money game," but I suspect that he was looking at a money game with the cube centered. But that would mean that Blue just missed a huge double, and therefore needs to play safe in order to make sure he can double next turn. It's more meaningful, for a money-game rollout, to put the cube on White's side of the board; see the rollout results below.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 105 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 101
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaACBC-B---c------dBbc-b-:0:0:1:41:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/2* 4/3 | eq: +1.155 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.56% (G:32.17% B:0.44%)
24.44% (G:8.18% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.150...+1.160) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2* 3/2 | eq: +1.060 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77.62% (G:25.37% B:0.42%)
22.38% (G:3.39% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.056...+1.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 105 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 101
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaACBC-B---c------dBbc-b-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/2* 3/2 | eq: +0.707 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.01% (G:23.43% B:0.14%)
20.99% (G:3.07% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.702...+0.712) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2* 4/3 | eq: +0.691 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.30% (G:30.59% B:0.19%)
23.70% (G:5.31% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.686...+0.697) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release