Only Koca dared take this one on and he hit the nail on the head. It's a pretty rare occurrence that we get a backgame timed so perfectly that everything is in the exact spot it's supposed to be when we threaten to hit all important shot. We have our 5 prime solidly in place and 22 shots deadly hitters. What's also hugely important is that even if we miss we're highly likely to keep our structure in place and release the spare currently on our 20pt meaning if the opponent leaves any blots next turn he'll have to face the same scenario.
I won't go through all the opp's numbers here but go through the big numbers in your head assuming we miss this roll and see how often he coughs up more shots. This is all a function of lack of spares on the 6pt. This is why early in the game it is so important sometimes to keep spares on the highest points rather than killing early. It can be costly later in the game to have no spares to play. Check out variants 1 and 2 that goes to show what a difference a spare or two can make in this type of position.
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| XGID=---BBBBB--------ba-bCBfd--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.61% (G:21.41% B:1.11%) | 74.70% (G:21.92% B:1.09%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.39% (G:10.25% B:0.08%) | 25.30% (G:9.95% B:0.07%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.594 | +1.248 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.797 (-0.203) | ±0.009 (+0.788..+0.806) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.136 (+0.136) | ±0.015 (+1.121..+1.151) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds | ||
Variant 1
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| XGID=---BBBBB--------ba-cCBed--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.27% (G:15.70% B:0.62%) | 69.65% (G:16.14% B:0.77%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.73% (G:12.10% B:0.06%) | 30.35% (G:11.93% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.407 | +0.884 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.627 (-0.124) | ±0.008 (+0.619..+0.635) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.751 | ±0.017 (+0.734..+0.768) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.249) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 00 second | ||
Variant 2
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| XGID=---BBBBB--------ba-dCBdd--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.97% (G:13.31% B:0.49%) | 66.78% (G:13.82% B:0.59%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.03% (G:12.28% B:0.07%) | 33.22% (G:12.01% B:0.07%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.334 | +0.718 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.571 | ±0.004 (+0.566..+0.575) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.555 (-0.016) | ±0.009 (+0.546..+0.564) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.429) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.4% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.9% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds | ||