Blue doesn't want to give up the blockading 10pt and he also doesn't want to flood his board with blots, since that will inhibit any attempt to attack when White runs off her anchor. But he must choose one or the other.
The variants below illustrate that White's extremely inflexible position makes a difference. For example, holding the 10pt forces White to blot immediately if she rolls a 61 or 51.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 88 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--bCBBB-B--------bbbbeB-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/2 | eq: +0.054 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.66% (G:11.50% B:0.42%)
53.34% (G:15.50% B:0.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.046...+0.063) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/6 10/5 | eq: -0.045 (-0.099) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.91% (G:9.08% B:0.31%)
58.09% (G:13.26% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.053...-0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 89 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--bCBBB-B--------bbbcdB-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/2 | eq: -0.125 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.23% (G:9.21% B:0.27%)
58.77% (G:17.99% B:1.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.133...-0.117) - [98.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/6 10/5 | eq: -0.137 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.96% (G:8.49% B:0.29%)
61.04% (G:14.49% B:0.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.144...-0.129) - [1.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 90 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--bCBBB-B--------bbcbdB-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/6 10/5 | eq: -0.168 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.01% (G:8.11% B:0.27%)
61.99% (G:15.01% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.175...-0.160) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/2 | eq: -0.183 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.38% (G:8.69% B:0.26%)
60.62% (G:18.62% B:1.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.190...-0.175) - [0.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release