Desperate times call for desperate measures and make no mistake, we're pretty bad off here with this roll...if we make the wrong play.
A common theme that makes it right to hit when it might appear a bit strange at first is the potential ability to pick up other blots of the opponent's/keep those blots from being safetied or used as builders. Here though, even if we pick up the opp's outfield blot, it's still right to hit! While significantly 'less right' it's still clear to make the banana split. See variant below.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 120 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaBBBB----A-ac--c-cB-bbB-:3:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/6 3/2* | eq: -0.277 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.04% (G:20.27% B:0.27%)
53.96% (G:16.79% B:1.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.288...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 | eq: -0.405 (-0.129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.43% (G:11.71% B:0.17%)
58.57% (G:11.05% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.414...-0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 137
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaBBBB----A--d--c-cB-bbB-:3:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/6 3/2* | eq: -0.401 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.58% (G:14.07% B:0.10%)
56.42% (G:16.62% B:1.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.412...-0.390) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 | eq: -0.450 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.73% (G:10.30% B:0.12%)
59.27% (G:10.83% B:0.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.460...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|