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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 18 April 2024, at 12:52 p.m.

In Response To: An ATS cube that's impossible to calculate OTB (Timothy Chow)

This position looks like it could be calculated because it's so close to being a race. However, what if Blue rolls a 2? Then it's much harder to assess what's going on. XG says that Blue is supposed to hit if he rolls a 2, and that he loses his market if White does not immediately hit back or roll big doublets.

I think that the take decision is not so hard to see OTB, but the doubling decision is very tough.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 26
7 point match
pip: 33
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A---------A-------a-Adcb-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 23.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.541 +1.653
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.655±0.008 (+0.647..+0.663)
Double/Take:+0.578 (-0.078)±0.013 (+0.565..+0.591)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.345)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Gigantic
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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