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BGonline.org Forums
Big blunder potential
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Big blunder potential (Bob Koca)
Date: Friday, 19 April 2024, at 12:22 a.m.
MWC estimates at various scores
Win a BG: 100% Win a G: 1.79% (From my XG) Win a S: I estimate .004%, might as well say 0.
Winning a BG is extremely useful suggesting 6/5* 6/3 and then hoping for opponent 42 and then our double 3s or better.
Winning a gammon also is useful though so risk - reward needs to be looked at involving gammons.
The hitting play gets the BG (1/18) * (1/9) = 1/162 of the time. This gains us (1/162) (100%) is approximately .62% MWC.
Compared to 6/3 1/0 there is effectively no difference if the opponent rolls an ace since all we have left is a chance to win a virtually meaningless single game. If opponent rolls a 3 or 5 other than 13, 15, 55 (15 rolls) then we regret our play having given up a chance for a gammon. If every one of those actually was a gammon we lost 15/36 * (1.79%) which is about .75% MWC. But there was only about 2/3 chance of winning the gammon anyways. Making it .5% MWC. The other rolls roughly balance out. We lost a crossover but opponent lost 5 pips.
So I estimate that the bold play wins about .62% more matches. It is an incredibly huge normalized error at score. XG puts it as about 110 (not the regular blunderful .110 but a thousand times larger. Chris Yep suggested to me that a newer version of XG with a better extreme score MET shows it as being a much larger error, about 900.
Timothy suggested that the hit had to be right otherwise I wouldn't have posted it. I considered throwing a curve ball and having it not actually be correct but decided the fast ball would get most players. Congrats on making perhaps the biggest normalized equity error of your life if you didn't hit.
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