…if you decided to play 23/18, because that is XG 3-ply's choice.
            
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 92 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBBBB---A----A-bAcbdbBa-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 23/18 15/12 | eq: +0.780 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.69% (G:8.10% B:0.25%)
28.31% (G:10.69% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 18/13 10/7 | eq: +0.751 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.27% (G:8.83% B:0.24%)
28.73% (G:7.25% B:0.42%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 23/15 | eq: +0.746 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.10% (G:8.41% B:0.28%)
28.90% (G:11.74% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 23/18 10/7 | eq: +0.744 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.84% (G:9.77% B:0.29%)
27.16% (G:12.86% B:0.59%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
But the rollout says that 23/18 is a whopper with cheese:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 92 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBBBB---A----A-bAcbdbBa-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/13 10/7 | eq: +0.932 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.76% (G:9.82% B:0.26%)
26.24% (G:7.83% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.928...+0.936) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 15/12 | eq: +0.777 (-0.155) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.09% (G:10.16% B:0.60%)
27.91% (G:12.02% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.771...+0.782) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
However, rambiz rightly raised the question of the cube decision before the roll. XG 3-ply does not double, but the rollout below indicates a small double.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 92 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBBBB---A----A-bAcbdbBa-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.58% (G:10.36% B:0.55%) | 72.48% (G:11.18% B:0.84%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.42% (G:9.55% B:0.68%) | 27.52% (G:9.97% B:1.57%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.439 | +0.955 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.792 (-0.027) | ±0.011 (+0.780..+0.803) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.819 | ±0.014 (+0.805..+0.833) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.181) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.8% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
That might seem like a small difference, but watch what happens if we roll out the checker-play decision with the cube turned:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 92 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBBBB---A----A-bAcbdbBa-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/13 10/7 | eq: +0.476 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.67% (G:10.95% B:0.62%)
24.33% (G:7.70% B:1.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.470...+0.483) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/18 10/7 | eq: +0.457 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.13% (G:12.67% B:1.34%)
24.87% (G:13.52% B:0.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.451...+0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2