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Rollout Result at 7a/7a

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 23 April 2024, at 7:42 p.m.

In Response To: Fourth Roll 63 (Paul Weaver)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---abcbB----:0:0:-1:63:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout124/15eq: -0.105
Player:
Opponent:		48.11% (G:9.10% B:0.41%)
51.89% (G:12.84% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.110...-0.099) - [98.5%]
Duration: 4 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout224/18 8/5eq: -0.115 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		47.69% (G:8.80% B:0.36%)
52.31% (G:12.51% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.121...-0.109) - [0.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout224/18 13/10eq: -0.115 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		48.40% (G:11.60% B:0.65%)
51.60% (G:16.64% B:1.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.122...-0.109) - [0.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 51 minutes
4.Rollout324/21 13/7eq: -0.123 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		47.83% (G:9.72% B:0.42%)
52.17% (G:13.29% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.130...-0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
5.Rollout413/7 8/5eq: -0.213 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		45.58% (G:8.61% B:0.36%)
54.42% (G:13.90% B:0.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.220...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
1 7587 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 7584 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 4837 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

4 4838 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am making the naive assumption that a rollout for $$ would give essentially the same result. In my opinion, few would get this right over the board, unless they had seen this post.

Other than 44 33 43, White's hitting numbers are not so strong after Blue's running with 24/15. Most or all leave return shots. In particular, 63 and 54 are weak hitters. There is a very strong duping of both 4s and 3s, many of which make inner points while unstacking: 31 53 63 41 42. Although 43 does not unstack, it is strong because it would make the 5pt.

If Blue is missed after running 24/15, the following 28 numbers make an outfield point: 41 32 51 52 53 54 65 61 43 64 24 63 22 33 44 55

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